Dropped a video on how I reckon the market is playing out.
Bottom line…
China is again lying about its capabilities in the semiconductor and AI race.
If you don’t want to watch, have a read of the video’s summary below:
🚀 The "Manhattan Project" or Just More BS?
China is back in the headlines with a Reuters "exclusive" claiming they’ve built their own EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography machines - the holy grail of chipmaking - using a team of renegade ex-ASML engineers. They’re calling it their "Manhattan Project."
The Fink Take: Take a massive pinch of salt. This smells less like a scientific breakthrough and more like the DeepSeek saga…
a lot of face-saving PR with just enough truth to make a headline, but not enough substance to change the scoreboard.
While China's prototype reportedly occupies an entire factory floor (ASML's fits in a school bus), Nvidia ($NVDA) is already moving the goalposts. Their 2026 'Rubin' platform is being built on ASML’s High-NA EUV - technology that prints transistors at an 8nm resolution. China isn't catching up to Nvidia; they're reverse-engineering the Western world's 2019 homework.
The Reality Check: The "Mud Hut" Metric
When people talk about China overtaking the US, they usually ignore the "mud hut" factor.
US GDP per capita (PPP): ~$75,490
China GDP per capita (PPP): ~$23,685
China is a face-saving nation. They need to look strong, but the objective data shows an economy that is still three times weaker per person than the US, hampered by massive rural poverty. If China truly cracked the EUV code, the markets would be screaming. Instead? Meh, it’s moved because Oracle keeps having bad news, which is tied to OpenAI.
AI is Bleeding, but the Power Play is Nuclear IMO
While the "AI Bubble" talk intensifies, look at the plumbing. Oracle ($ORCL) just got slapped after its $10B Michigan data center deal with Blue Owl Capital stalled. Lenders are getting cold feet about "debt-fueled expansion."
OpenAI is the real issue. They are projected to burn through $115 billion by 2029. They’re spending $9B to make $5B.
And I’ve already said they sound like Netscape in the 90s…
The Next Trade: Forget the chatbots; watch the juice. Data centers are hitting an energy wall. The next leg up for AI infrastructure isn't better code - it’s Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
⚛️ The SMR Play: Who has the "Juice"?
If you're playing the Nuclear AI pivot, these are the names I’m watching…
Rolls-Royce ($RR / $RYCEY): The European heavyweight. As of December 2025, Rolls-Royce has officially been named the "preferred bidder" for the UK’s first SMR fleet at Wylfa, Wales. They aren't just a jet engine company anymore…
they are a sovereign nuclear play. With a £2.5 billion government-backed mandate and the furthest-along regulatory approval in Europe, they are the "safe bet" in a volatile sector.
Oklo Inc. ($OKLO): The Bill Gates-backed darling. It’s a "pure-play" on the 2027/2028 horizon. Warning: High volatility, but Jensen Huang’s blessing keeps the momentum alive when the overall market isn’t going to absolute shit.
NuScale Power ($SMR): The only company with an NRC-certified design. They are pushing toward a 2030 target, but the stock remains a "Strong Sell" for many analysts due to widening losses.
BWX Technologies ($BWXT): The "picks and shovels" play. They manufacture the actual steam generators for Rolls-Royce and the US Navy. If SMRs take off, BWXT gets paid regardless of which reactor wins.
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The War Chest: Momentum & The Oil Bid
Geopolitics is getting messy (Venezuela, Putin, the usual). While defense stocks had a lackluster 2025, the tide is turning.
Ticker | The Setup | The "Fink" Alpha |
ExxonMobil ($XOM) | Trading near 52-week highs | If oil ticks up during the Venezuela spat, Exxon is the ultimate beneficiary. They just smashed expectations; imagine what they do with a price tailwind. |
Lockheed Martin ($LMT) | Recovering toward $485 | Momentum is finally kicking in. If it clears the 2025 high of $516, the shorts will be incinerated. |
Bottom Line: Market dynamics go up and down. Don't "shit the bed" every time there's a red candle. Follow the momentum, watch the energy, and ignore the China face saving.